How they got here:
Brazil came into this World Cup as hot favourites and have barely gotten out of third gear in strolling to the quarters. The main concern has been whether the bench has too many players who should be on the pitch and vice versa. The assumption is, however, that Brazil will kick into overdrive when they really need to.
France were all but written-off following a troubled qualifying campaign, talk of a rift between the coach and senior players and confusion over tactics and team selection. The first two group games seemed to indicate a reprise of the failure of 2002. But after booking their place in the second round with a victory over Togo, they found themselves in the unfamiliar role of underdogs against Spain. A gutsy, dramatic 3-1 win put them through.
Tactics:
For France, the big debate going into the Spain match was whether Zidane would be recalled after suspension. Going into this one there will be no debate, so France will line up 4-5-1, with Henry as the lone striker, Ribery and Malouda on the flanks and Zidane operating ahead of Makelele and Viera. Brazil will line up with the same team, roughly a 4-2-2-2, which started the tournament, with the possible improvement of Gilberto Silva coming in for Emerson.
With the exception of the goalkeeper, France are defensively the better team; Thuram and Gallas should have enough to keep Brazil’s overrated strikers at bay. Don’t let Ronaldo’s record-breaking feats thus far fool you; for the most part he has looked tired and cumbersome, as has Adriano. They are, however, still good enough to take any serviceable opportunities which come their way, so the French must be alert. Brazil’s main threat will come from Kaka and Ronaldinho (or Juninho and Robinho off the bench), but by deploying two midfield enforcers in Makelele and Viera, France are better equipped than most to handle them.
Brazil’s defence is average at best and below average when Cafu and Roberto Carlos push forward leaving the flanks exposed. Henry should have the beating of any of Brazil’s defenders, so it will be crucial that France play the ball forward as quickly as possible to exploit his pace. In more compact situations when Brazil’s designated defensive midfielders Emerson (or Gilberto Silva) and Ze Roberto are in position shielding the back four, Zidane’s craft and trickery might come into play.
The first goal will be key, because both teams have explosive pace which could be lethal on the counter-attack. Whoever takes the lead has first claim on putting that into effect. When the scores are level, it’s likely to be a more attritional battle in midfield.
Verdict:
The nature of their respective second round victories could be instructive. Employing tactics contrary to their “Joga Bonita” corporate propaganda, Brazil were content to sit back against Ghana and exploit the ineptitude of their opponent’s offside trap on the counter-attack. By contrast France played against Spain like their careers depended on it, which was literally true in the case of Zidane. Like him, most of the rest of the team know this is probably their last chance at another World Cup. Even the likes of Henry and Viera, if they do make it, will be well past their best by 2010 in South Africa.
This could be a great match because it will be decided by which team wants it most. Both have a mix of superstars in their prime, veterans on the way out and young guns eager to make their mark. Coming into the tournament Brazil seemed to be the better-functioning unit, but after France’s dogged victory over Spain and in a winner-takes-all knockout situation the pre-tournament formbook is irrelevant.
This could be a match in which Brazil are undone by caution and complacency. Parriera, lest we forget, was the mastermind of possibly the most forgettable World Cup success ever at USA ’94. Against a French team which has both nothing and everything to lose, it could be fatal.
Prediction:
Henry to finally turn in a big-time performance for France and extend Zidane’s career a little longer, possibly in extra-time.
France 2-1.
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3 comments:
That's a pretty brave prediction.
True, there is a possibility that France might nick it with Henry scoring on a break or from set pieces exploting the weakness of Brazil in the air.
However, its more likely that Brazil tire out France's ancients with slick passing and movement. As long as they are patient in the build up and have good possession play, chances are they'll get a comfortable win.
But as the ball is round in every match, you never know.
I say Brazil 3-1, with Henry, Ronaldo, Kaka and Ronaldinho getting on the scoresheet.
Cheers!
ronaldinho doesn't look like scoring. i won't rule out penalties.
you were close.
Brazil was terrible on the field that day.
Everybody was obviously rooting for the samba kings but france with zidane looks like a stronger team.
-ling-
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