If groups ABCD are characterised by two-horse races, groups EFGH are notable for still being open. And as the last batch of first round matches beckon, where the ABCD groups fight for 1-2 positions, EFGH groups will feature titanic battles for qualification. Out of 16 teams, only two are sure of more action: Brazil and Spain. For the rest, it's going to be a heart-stopping, gut-wrenching race for a place.
GROUP E
The drama begins here, and possibly hits its highest point here, where Italy take on Czech Rep in what was always going to be a mouth-watering tie. Adding to the spice is the high chance that between them, only one may qualify. Italy lead the group, and need only a draw to make it through, but the prospect of meeting Brazil in the second round if the come in second in the group will spur Marcello Lippi's men to finish strong. The Czechs, so impressive against USA yet so underwhelming against Ghana will fancy qualifying anyhow, and one suspects it will take a win to really see them through, eventhough they currently sit above Ghana in goal difference.
Ghana play USA at the same time, and both teams still have a chance of qualification. Ghana's is extremely realistic - a victory here will see them through regardless if the result between the Italians and the Czechs. A draw can see them through if the Czechs lose. For USA, the light is dimmer, but mathematically, it is still achievable: a win against Ghana coupled with an Italian victory will see USA leapfrog both the Czechs and the Ghanians into second place. So tightly balanced is this group that even the least likely of qualifiers, USA, have a reasonable chance of making it through. Possibly one of the most exciting world cup match-days in modern history.
Highlight match: Italy v Czech Rep
Likely qualifiers: Italy and Ghana
GROUP F
Brazil have qualified, albeit with more stud than stun, which leaves Australia, Croatia and Japan to duel for a day in the second round. Of the three, Australia are in pole, facing Croatia on match-day and having their destiny firmly in their own hands. A draw, one assumes, will see them through on goal difference (though of course, this works on the assumption that Japan will not defeat Brazil).
For Croatia to qualify, they have to defeat the Australians. Anything short of that will see them and the Socceroos maintain status quo, which will not be enough. For Japan to qualify, Zico has the mammoth task of orchestrating not just a defeat, but a BIG defeat, of his countrymen Brazil, and then hope for a draw between Australia and Croatia. The way it looks, Japan can start packing their bags.
Highlight match: Australia v Croatia
Likely qualifiers: Brazil and Australia
GROUP G
This is the group where France have got themselves into a tricky situation again. They have drawn both their games so far, and are stuck at third, with two points and Togo left to play. Granted that they are expected to win that match, France have shown enough creak and crack to suggest that a third draw - especially without the suspended Zidane - isn't completely impossible. For those hoping to see the Swiss and Koreans go through (I confess to being in this category), it is a shame that both teams have to split points in the last game, because whichever team that loses is likely to miss out on the next round.
The most likely scenario, however, is that France will defeat Togo, and the Swiss and Koreans will draw, resulting in a five point tie at the top. In this situation, France need at least a 2-0 victory to ensure qualification. A 1-0, coupled by a Korea/Switzerland goalless draw will be no good for France. The higher the scoreline in Korea v Switzerland, the more goals France will have to score. In short, France need a good whip of a match to see them through, where they are most likely going to meet Group H winners, Spain.
Highlight match: Switzerland v Korea
Likely qualifiers: Too close to call
GROUP H
Spain becomes the first team to qualify as group toppers, leaving the pretenders in their group trailing miles behind. Of the four, Saudi and Tunisia are tied on the one point they shared in their 2-2 draw, yet the Saudis don't look like having a shot in hell because it is a date with Spain on their last match-day. Not even a second-string Spanish team, which we are almost certain of seeing, should stumble with the Saudis. The focus therefore shifts to Ukraine v Tunisia in a match that should decide who goes through second. Ukraine are in pole position, sitting two points clear of Tunisia, and so nothing short of a victory for the African champions will be enough to see them out of this group.
Highlight match: Ukraine v Tunisia
Likely qualifiers: Spain and Ukraine
The final group day will be a major storm for these four groups, and when the dust settles, be ready for a few surprise entries into the round of 16. Before then, let's all bite our lips and grip seats tight. It's gonna be a massive, massive fight to qualify.
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