This is going to be another story on whether Brazil can win the world cup. The reason why I’ve been posting so many of these stories, all from different angles, is because there is a larger narrative in every world cup, and eventhough it’s fun to stick our heads into the nitty gritties of matchdays, it is also important to keep our fingers on the pulse of this larger narrative. I believe that the narrative of this world cup has been “Brazil will win the world cup”, and because so many writers and commentators have written everyone but the champions off, I find it necessary to produce contrasting opinions and balance our thoughts. It is too easy to get carried away on a team’s chances just because of the names on the shirts.
However good they may be, or even awesome, or glorious, or invincible they may be, Carlos Alberto Pereira and his entire Brazil squad would have been watching yesterday’s games with a keen eye, and it’s safe to say that what they saw would not have pleased them. It is quite clear that the two runaway teams in Group E are Czech Republic and Italy. With USA and Ghana not doing anything near enough to trouble the former two teams, it seems inevitable that Brazil will cross paths with one of the two: the Czechs or the Italians. It is also arguable that of the games we’ve seen thus far, these are probably two of the best teams who have already played.
If you look long enough at the Czechs, they start to look like the kind of team that was built specifically to beat teams like Brazil. They possess many a desireable quality, but more importantly, they are strong exactly where Brazil are weak. Aerial threat, for example, is one of the fortes of the Czech game. With much of the strategy designed around the 6’9 giant that is Jan Koller, the Czechs showed early against USA how they intend to pick apart opponents. It also comes without much introduction that aerial play is where Brazil’s defence is weakest. It is almost traditional – generation after generation of Brazillian defenders loathe the high ball, and their goalkeepers are always better shot-stoppers than brave commanders of the six-yard-box.
If you saw the Czechs yesterday, you will also have noticed how huge they are. Height is a major factor, and next to that, size. The Czechs have those attributes in abundance, such that Koller himself looks completely standard copy compared with his colleagues (to draw a comparison, the 6’7 Peter Crouch looks like a tower when standing with his English colleagues). But size is nothing if it’s not used right, and the Czechs use their robust physique to great advantage, forcing off opponents from the ball and outmuscling them with pace and power. Even the formerly diminutive Thomas Rosicky has bulked up, and this too is something the Brazillians dislike. The fleet-footed Brazillians always prefer to play teams that give them room to move, around whom they can weave their assured passing and through whom they can dribble. Having seen the Czechs, it is mighty hard to imagine any team dancing around these incredibly fit muscular guys. Their strength and fearlessness means that should the Brazillians face the Czechs, they will find themselves with very little room to play, always getting closed down, and having their ball-skills tamed by solid tackling and upper-body checks. It is almost safe to say that among all the teams at the world cup, Brazil would want least to meet Czech Republic.
If that is their wish, and if it is answered, then the task of dismantling Brazil falls to the Italians. Age-old rivals, Brazil and Italy have locked horns many times, but none more memorable than the three big world cup ties: the 1970 final, the 1982 Paolo Rossi hattrick, and the 1994 final. And while the cliché would have been Brazil’s beautiful attack against Italy’s cattenaccio defence, one look at Italy v Ghana will tell you that the cattenaccio is as unfashionable today as last season’s throwaways on the Milan catwalks. For at every chance possible, especially in the first half, Italy attempted to pass the ball forward and run forward. So quick was their movement up the pitch that Italy succeeded to turn defence into attack within seconds without having to use the long ball. Often, it took three or four pass-and run moves, involving say Nesta to Pirlo to Totti and then a through ball to Toni. Such is the change in the Italian footballing ethos that the runs they make now more closely resemble rugby runs, where every pass is followed through with the single-mindedness of driving the entire midfield and forward lines higher up the pitch. And in all this, the famed Italian defence has not been compromised. Fabio Grosso may look out of sorts in left back (who wouldn’t when replacing Paolo Maldini?), but the central pairing of Cannavaro and Nesta, backed up by the tough tackling Daniele de Rossi defend like cattenaccio type defenders minus the negative mindset.
Such organization, discipline, desire and tactical shrewdness is sure to pose questions even Brazil may struggle to answer. The quickness with which Italy move up and down the pitch will at some point make it necessary for midfielders Kaka and Ronaldinho to track back and do their share of tackling, if not temporary man-marking. The through balls that Totti, Perrotta and Pirlo feed the front two will not be the kind of defending Lucio and Juan enjoy playing. Brazil’s centrebacks are tough-tacklers and strong, thuggish and (but for their Jesus loves you undershirts), prototypes of the badass backliner. This means they prefer to play with the attackers’ backs facing them, where they can pull close to the frontment and squeeze them out with their size and tackling. If height is the Czechs’ weapon, the through ball is Italy’s. It may not help the Brazillian cause that among their fullbacks is the less than prudent Roberto Carlos, whose marauding runs forward often leaves gaps at the back. The paceless Lucio and Juan should by now be studying Toni’s runs, Gilardino’s mobility and of course, Iaquinta’s late goal, and note how many goals have already been scored this world cup by through balls latched on by pacey strikers.
Of course, Brazil are still favourites for the cup. A couple of good rivals and a theory plucked from nowhere can never make it otherwise. And their strengths will always hold up, not just to their own weaknesses, but also against the weaknesses of their opponents. And to be fair, it is conversely arguable that Brazil’s fluid use of width will be a baptism of fire for the inexperienced Zaccardo and Grosso, Italy’s fullbacks, or that their front pairing of Ronaldo and Adriano will find the Czech centreback pairing of Ujfalusi and Rozehnal underwhelming and one-dimensional. Brazil have enough tricks in the bag to potentially outsmart any and every team. But the draw has not been entirely kind to them, and a guaranteed second round meeting with either the Czechs or the Italians at least opens up the possibility of an early shock for the champions. On their current form, do not rule out the possibility of Brazil having to take both these teams out as well, for their draw potentially throws one up in the second round and the other in the semi-finals.
But these are games we want to see. Nobody wants the world cup sewn up before the opening match and the sheer number of pundits who have given it to Brazil irritates me. It cannot be so simple. It must not be so simple. When Brazil’s group crosses with Group E, there is every reason to believe that simplicity will not be a soup of the day.
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