The Penalty Factor

Tired legs. Substitutions made. The whistle goes and 120 minutes of football has been played. Everyone’s got the cramps. Everyone’s in the nerves. The game is drawn, and we go to penalties. In this Secawanbola exclusive, we bring you the stats of every penalty shootout result EVER for our second round teams, so you can boast the best information exactly when it matters.

Penalties have been deciding international football since Euro 76, but it would only grace the world cup stage when Germany beat France in the 1982 semi-final. Since then, some teams have gone off on scintillating records while others have failed over and over again. Those among us with a functioning memory will know that England and Holland aren’t very adept from the spot. You’ll also know that Germany and Brazil are a good notch in front.

But who exactly are we talking about when the games go to penalties? Who can you count on to put five good spot kicks away and possibly save some? Who can you count on to smash the ball into the stands? Into the bar? Into the goalie? Who can you count on to try something smart and end up looking stupid? When the game goes beyond 120 minutes, who goes through?



STATS FROM THE SPOT

One good answer is Argentina. With five wins in seven, an 100% world cup record, and a 28% rate of saving penalties, you have to hand it to the Argies for perfecting the art of the spotkick. Their only two losses have come in the Copa America, both against Brazil, and the scalps they have claimed include Italy, and England.

Brazil and Germany have also gone to penalties three times in the world cup, with the remainder coming in the Copa or the Euro. Between them, Germany’s world cup record is also intact, and you’d have to go back to the first international shootout in 1976 to find Germany defeated. Note especially Germany’s astounding conversion rate, scoring 22 out of 24 penalties, or 92%. Of them all, though, Brazil has to be the form team, winning two shootouts in the last two years. It does, nonetheless, make you wonder when Brazil boasts the highest number of shootouts (they’ve been involved in eight) that they too are fallible in extra time, and are not nearly as adept in closing out matches as their reputation suggests.

After these three, there’s a slew of ordinary results that are not particularly edge-of-the-seat. Mexico miss almost half of their penalties (didn’t they just miss one in open play the other day?) while Sweden and Portugal have not been tested enough to see a trend.

And then come the shockers. England, Holland and Italy form the triumvirate of penalty shootout nightmares, all having been there five times, and all having only won once. Granted that their respective wins have all come in the last ten years, these are still some pretty bad stats, and it doesn’t take numbers to tell you what your seared memory already does too well.

Italy was notorious for getting eliminated in three consecutive world cups on penalties, losing Italia 90, USA 94 and France 98 from the spot. Their culprits were Aldo Serena, Roberto Baggio and Luigi Di Biaggio respectively. And while this served as good excuse for how close Italy always go before bowing out of major tournaments (remember Euro 2000?) it is nonetheless a shameful past.

England have lost twice on the world cup stage – to archrivals Germany and Argentina in duels that significantly shaped their rivalries. England’s culprits for missing penalties were Stuart Pearce and David Batty, and we also remember Gareth Southgate’s miss, also to Germany, in Euro 96. Their form is also poor – England were beaten two years ago at Portugal to Portugal.

Holland have only been in one world cup shootout – the one they majestically lost to Brazil. It was the one where they missed two penalties in open play. Two years later, Holland would lose in another semifinal on penalties. Of that generation, only Philip Cocu remains, and god forbid should Cocu ever attempt another spotkick for Holland. Their form, however, is good. Their only shootout victory came as recently as two years ago at Euro 04 against Sweden. And if any of these three teams look likely to climb out of the “drop zone”, you’d fancy the Dutch.

THE LONELY WALK

Penalty shootouts are thrilling because they pit man on man. For a team sport like football, this is a decidedly rare occurrence. Who are the men among men you’d tip to be penciled in for a go?

The Argentines have a wealth of options: Teves, Riquelme, Saviola, Maxi Rodrigues, Crespo, Messi, all are either regular penalty takers with their clubs or look every bit capable of converting. The Brazilians, with their magic quartet, plus Roberto Carlos and Juninho Pernambucano have dead ball specialists in abundance.

Two countries that haven’t been mentioned are Spain and France – a second round tie. Between them, you have possible penalty converters such as Torres, Raul, Xabi Alonso, Henry, and Zidane.

The Portuguese all look equal to the task: Deco, Simao, Ronaldo and Figo are all excellent from the spot. As are the Dutch, led by the master himself, Van Nistelrooy, followed by capable dead ball men in Van Persie, Sneijder, Van der Vaart, and also Robben.

The Germans are always solid, with anyone from Mertesacker to Klose looking like a man with a sensible head screwed on. The Italians, on the flipside, always look dodgy and you can count on anyone from Totti to Cannavaro to lose their cool when it matters.

Australia came into the world cup on the back of a shootout win against Uruguay, and will fancy their chances against Italy if it were to go so far. In Cahill, Bresciano, Kewell, Aloisi and Viduka, you know Australia have a few who can shoot from close and score.

And then there’s the English! Oh how England fans dread the day they are brought to penalties again! Who will be the fall guy this time? All the signs point to Peter Crouch. And while guys like Lampard, Gerrard, Beckham and Joe Cole look spot on for their clubs, there’s always something about England and penalty shootouts that transgresses all established strongholds of trust and faith and hope and it leaves you with nothing but a back full of sweat, a heart racing at 140bpm and a trousers soaked in piss. Mark this writer’s words: if England go to penalties, they will lose. Murphy’s law will be in place, and everything will go wrong. Rooney will be substituted, one of the back four will be chosen to shoot and England won’t find joy.

THE SHOT STOPPERS

A very quick look at the goalkeepers tells us that Italy’s Buffon and Holland’s Van der Sar are the form men, having pulled off blinding saves throughout the tournament. Oswaldo Sanchez of Mexico was extremely mobile when Portugal had a penalty, and though he didn’t save, his distracting presence should see some return on investment. Jens Lehmann of Germany is also famed for his goalline antics, and his large frame will bode Germany well.

On the other side of the coin, Sweden’s Issaksson is a huge man who doesn’t seem to use his size well enough. Robinson of England has looked clueless and hesitant and those are poor qualities in a penalty shootout. Brazil’s Dida also looks circumspect, and you can’t expect him to save too many.

Australia have better fortunes, for in Schwarzer they already have a penalty saving hero, with a good dive and quick reflex. Spain and France both have small nippy goalies, and these types can do very well in penalties. Between them, though, you’d have to fancy the shot stopping ability of Cassillas over the eccentricity of Barthez.

Since 1986, the world cups have averaged three penalty shootouts each. With the increasing tightness of games, and a draw that pits some classic shootout possibilities (Holland v Portugal, Italy v Australia, Spain v France), there is bound to be much drama from the spot. Now you know the who’s who of penalty shootouts, and the trends from previous shootouts, you should be better equipped to manage your expectations, hopes and fandom. It is never really as simple as a lottery draw. We’ve seen from goalkeepers like Dudek and Lehmann that the goalkeeper can do plenty to put off penalty takers. We know from men like Van Nistelrooy and Shevchenko that the penalty kick is an art that can be perfected. And we know from countries like Argentina and Germany that the shootout itself can be mastered. Perhaps more history can be written, perhaps the poor teams can prove statistics wrong. And even as the onus always lies on the kick taker to score, the onus will lie very much on the big shootout teams to win these duels. The pressure’s on. Let’s go to penalties.

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