Case For Europe

Predicting world cup winners is a well-loved sport. Futile as it may be, we are all guilty of indulging in the odd prophecy. Some look at form, some look at class, and some look to favourites. Goodchristianboy looks at a curious bit of world cup history, and suggests you can already rule out Brazil.

Before you make that bold bet on Argentina or Brazil winning the next world cup, you might want to know that every time a world cup is held in Europe, a European team wins, and every time it's held outside Europe, a South-American team wins. This is almost always true, but for one exception: Brazil triumphing in Sweden in 1958.

The balance is poised so thinly, so precariously, since Europe takes its turn to host every other world cup, and so the inter-continental struggle for supremacy rocks back and forth in an ever-intriguing battle for domination.

Assuming this is true, assuming Brazil's triumph so long ago in Sweden is the exception that proves the rule, who among this edition's European powerhouses seems most likely to be crowned world champions?

Could it be Germany, riding on the winds of organic home ground advantage (or FIFA-induced home ground advantage? We'll leave this for another day)? Their results are shocking, but these things do happen.

Could it be England, with their worldwide appeal, household names and tabloid presence? Some will say that if it is ever to happen, it will have to happen now.

Or could it be France, who boast such glittering stars as Henry, Trezeguet and Vieira? Or is the France of today no more than a monument of its former glory?

Maybe it will be Italy, who boast wonderful form, a masterclass manager, and the time-honoured defensive mettle? Can the Azzuri surface from annonimity, like they did in Spain, to shock the world again?



Of these former champions, one figures that the odds are stacked somewhat even, and each has a valid case. But what about a new champion? What about the other European giants who have never tasted World Cup glory? Could the Olimpiastadion come July be crowining a maiden crown?

The Netherlands might make a strong case. The orange army has been knocking on the door of the weltpokal since 1974. Can Marco Van Basten inspire his young team out of a tricky first round group towards total football glory?

And what of Spain? So mighty domestically, yet always so disastrous on the global stage. Their first xi reads like the glitterati of europe's best, still no one would dare put their money on the world cup's perrenial disappointment.

And then there's Portugal. Coached by Luis Filipe Scolari, can one expect much from his young transitional team?

The Czechs? The Swedes? Both have been runners up before, yet sometimes you just know it, when history counts and when history doesn't. The underdogs won't win it. spain likely won't. This writer thinks that France, Germany and the Netherlands may do well but the title really, really comes down to these two teams: England and Italy.

As for the South Americans, whether late or early, they will be vanquished.


Follow the links for other stories in the series.
Case for Underdogs
Case against Favourites

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